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The Kelly Criterion is a staking method well known across wagering and investment professionals which should be known and considered by all Betfair punters.
Great explanation here:
Stake = f x Bank
f = fraction or % to bet
f = ((decimalodds-1)*p - (1-p))/(decimalodds-1))
Above is x100% and divisor ie divisor 2 = 0.5)
p = probability of winning ie 25% or 0.25
Example
Starting bank = 1000, decimal odds 5, p = 25%
f = ((5-1)*0.25 - (1-0.25))/(5-1)
f= (1- 0.75)/4 = 0.25/4 = 0.0625 x 100% = 6.25%
f=((5x0.25 - 1) /(5-1))100
f= 0.25/4 x 100
f= 6.2%
Stake = 6.25% x 1000 = 62.5
1/2 kelly = divisor = 2 = 31.25
1/4 kelly = divisor = 4 = 15.63
if % negative = no bet
